Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 28.851143 30.848167 33.004648 35.522926 38.404698 41.626488 45.539963
2025-11-09 25.393994 27.976949 30.925880 34.594951 39.117321 44.624332 52.034406
2025-11-16 23.190534 25.986717 29.283624 33.545726 39.052419 46.154522 56.444495
2025-11-23 22.236836 25.312101 29.049354 34.063102 40.854994 50.161109 64.811419
2025-11-30 21.230964 24.453224 28.460086 33.993271 41.780884 53.010320 72.057330
2025-12-07 20.268327 23.560383 27.728985 33.621468 42.181953 55.080610 78.496651
2025-12-14 19.020611 22.220992 26.313973 32.175108 40.844433 54.245762 79.599716
2025-12-21 18.478376 21.759186 26.021922 32.255294 41.751621 57.079662 88.270749
2025-12-28 18.097601 21.481212 25.948558 32.623669 43.115056 60.868322 100.186683
2026-01-04 17.392056 20.732897 25.182433 31.910581 42.672345 61.387711 105.034243
2026-01-11 17.178144 20.633236 25.306336 32.524617 44.445194 66.267715 122.681111
2026-01-18 16.885134 20.408265 25.234803 32.825429 45.711959 70.414758 140.986904
2026-01-25 16.354764 19.907211 24.845381 32.774803 46.683714 74.901071 167.134536
2026-02-01 15.620205 19.097839 23.976908 31.916871 46.146173 76.148494 184.574592
2026-02-08 14.945911 18.337276 23.130082 31.013027 45.386791 76.678326 200.368717
2026-02-15 14.681605 18.142987 23.109147 31.461656 47.267535 84.219724 267.306323
2026-02-22 14.313414 17.779376 22.806558 31.401148 48.124851 89.483299 342.673575
2026-03-01 13.911713 17.348429 22.374961 31.078082 48.389969 93.225674 430.108718
2026-03-08 13.318745 16.616707 21.445080 29.817766 46.516628 90.010819 425.978462
2026-03-15 13.068325 16.378821 21.272977 29.887790 47.531810 96.240007 617.189667
2026-03-22 12.889628 16.238431 21.244365 30.209248 49.153263 105.352498 1172.511900
2026-03-29 12.519618 15.799649 20.721124 29.586638 48.524239 106.174509 1575.120048
2026-04-05 12.412872 15.750994 20.819360 30.122848 50.708992 119.141090 32693.299496